As highways and other transportation infrastructure in the U.S. become more congested and age, more preservation and maintenance projects will be required, resulting in an increased number of work zones. This increase in construction activity comes at a time when traffic volumes, number of crashes and severity of crashes remain elevated. According to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, annual traffic fatalities have increased by over 10,000 in the last decade, reaching nearly 43,000 in 2023.
Work zones are both temporary and unique environments, and while limited data is available to help determine potential impacts, project managers can create effective TMPs by utilizing crash prediction methodologies. This could help lead to the development of more insightful work zone impact management strategies that result in minimized traffic delays, improved mobility, increased motorist and worker safety, and better road access for businesses and residents.
TMP creators should document the expected safety impact of the work zone for use as a comparison against the actual safety performance of the work zone. There are several strategies for helping predict this impact including a review of existing crash patterns and hot spots, application of crash modification factors to account for any work zone safety strategies that will be used, highway safety manual procedures for estimating crashes based on changed traffic volumes and roadway geometry, and a review of human factors such as driver and worker expectations.
For example, in predicting driver and pedestrian behavior for a work zone, crash prediction models should incorporate seasonal conditions to assess the potential impact on diverted road traffic flow. Increased recreational traffic, winter storm conditions, high winds or sun glare are all factors that can be used to determine the potential for different types of road crashes and other work zone impacts.