“There’s a recency bias,” Morrissey says. “The reality is that customers want low-dollar solutions and proof that any spend will deliver results. This, in turn, drives utilities to be more reactive and respond to current and recent situations they’ve faced rather than be able to take a hypothetical and holistic look at changing future conditions.”
One of the more promising strategies for improving grid resilience and preparing for events that have not yet happened involves enhancing interconnectivity of regional transmission systems. From a collective national resiliency perspective, investing in more robust interconnected transmission and distribution systems and having networks more intertwined through architecture could empower resiliency and help prevent entire regions from going without power, allowing power to drive to where it’s needed when hard times hit.
“Utilities are facing a perfect storm of challenges,” says Jeffrey Casey, a Burns & McDonnell transmission and distribution business director. “The increasing frequency and severity of extreme weather events is straining aging infrastructure. At the same time, after years of flat or declining demand, electricity usage is now projected to grow 1%-2% annually for the foreseeable future. These, among other business-as-usual factors, can overwhelm systems and processes not built for this kind of pressure.”
The U.S. consumes 4,000 terawatt hours (TWh) a year, making it one of the largest and most complex collections of electricity grids on the globe — and a system exposed to some of the world’s harshest conditions, given the country’s varied climate zones.
Casey attributes projected power demand growth to three key factors: data center expansion, the reshoring of manufacturing, and widespread electrification. He acknowledges that during his 16 years in the industry, there has been almost no load growth in the aggregate; in some areas of the U.S., the growth actually has been negative.
But even if the U.S. power industry were to grow only 2% a year over the next three decades, Casey says, the change would be incremental. The country would need to nearly double power supply resources and the size of the grid — essentially building another grid on top of the one that already exists or completely rethinking how to repurpose and use the current infrastructure.
And the grid won’t simply be required to grow; it’s also going to be stress-tested, in real time, by climate volatility. Adding even more risk would be falling severely behind on supply when it would be required the most.
“To think we’re going to double capacity in three decades is daunting,” Casey says. “Even if the estimated projections are half wrong: where will the materials come from? Where will the labor come from to engineer and construct the infrastructure? And how will we keep it all safe and reliable when severe weather strikes? We need to be planning for this now.”