Though total installed costs of the pebble bed design are still not finalized, they should be in the range of about $5,500/kWe for the initial prototype plant. Many analysts believe those costs will drop over time, however, as more plants are built and scale efficiencies begin to be achieved. Moreover, with 60 years of design life, or longer, cost advantages begin to skew even further toward advanced nuclear plants.
“I’m not convinced small-modular nuclear will ever get to parity with natural gas plants, which today are being installed at about $1,500 per kilowatt,” Jurczak says. “But when you’re talking about carbon-free, ultra-reliable energy that supports the grid’s need for reliability and resiliency, you can justify some level of cost premium.”
Jurczak believes that costs of the pebble bed design as well as other advanced small modular nuclear designs like the NuScale VOYGR plant will decline to a price point far below the costs being reported by the Vogtle project.
“Based on recent announcements, costs for Vogtle are penciling out to around $15,000 per kilowatt,” Jurczak says. “If the new small modular plants can’t ultimately get to about one-third of that level, the nuclear industry faces steep challenges. Nuclear has to be affordable or it’s not going to be in the picture.”
Both Jurczak and Bhagwagar say the complex and redundant safety systems required by nuclear regulators are the primary cost driver for construction of new conventional nuclear plants.
“All of the advanced reactors going forward will need to move away from the saturated steam process in today’s reactors,” Bhagwagar says. “The existing light water reactors consist of many systems, structures and components that are safety related. These are designed and built to exacting specifications as they are required to pass extremely rigorous inspections by the NRC.”
Each modular Xe-100 unit will be stacked as an 80-MWe “four-pack” in a single structure that relies on high-temperature gas cooling that needs no pumps or backup generators, nor the wide array of fail-safe safety systems required in conventional plants.
“That’s the big difference,” Bhagwagar says. “There will be just one reactor building, which will consist of all safety-related systems, structures and components. Everything else will be off-the-shelf, commercial-grade equipment similar to what you would see in a gas plant. There will be no need for custom-designed components and systems, which is a major cost driver for conventional nuclear plants.”